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Issues/News>
Deseret News: Race Tight for June 24 Primary
May 22, 2008
Race tight between Chaffetz and Cannon
Copyright 2008 Deseret News
By Bob Bernick Jr.
Deseret News
Published: Thursday, May 22, 2008 12:34 a.m. MDT
U.S. Rep. Chris Cannon is in a fight for his political
life, a new poll shows.
Cannon, R-Utah, is neck-and-neck with fellow Republican
Jason Chaffetz in the 3rd Congressional District Republican
Party primary on June 24, found a survey conducted for the
Deseret News and KSL-TV.
Cannon leads Chaffetz 39 percent to 37 percent among 3rd
District voters who said they are "very likely" or
"somewhat likely" to vote next month, according to a poll
conducted by Dan Jones & Associates on May 13-19. Those
results are within the poll's margin of error of plus or
minus 7 percent. Nineteen percent were undecided.
However, when Jones culled out only Republican likely 3rd
District voters, Cannon leads Chaffetz 49-34 percent. Among
those who said they usually vote "strong Republican,"
Cannon leads 44-33, Jones found.
Rep. Jim Matheson, D-Utah, is well ahead of his GOP
opponent, Bill Dew, in the 2nd Congressional District, the
poll shows. Matheson is up 67-20 percent; 11 percent are
undecided.
And GOP Rep. Rob Bishop also holds a commanding lead over
his Democrat challenger, Morgan Bowen, in the 1st District.
Bishop is ahead 58-19 percent; 19 percent is undecided.
Both Cannon and Chaffetz hold large leads over the Democrat
in the 3rd District race, Bennion Spencer. So whomever
comes out of the GOP primary would be favored to win.
Cannon leads Spencer, 50-19 percent (with some other voters
picking other candidates or are "undecided"); while
Chaffetz leads Spencer 46-18 percent.
The Utah Republican Party has closed its primary. Only
those who are registered Republicans and those who are
political independents who are willing to register as a
Republican at the polls on primary day can get a Republican
ballot.
Registered Democrats can't vote in a GOP primary.
Jones, who has polled in Utah for more than 30 years, found
that among Republicans Cannon does better against Chaffetz
than he does among the general populace of registered
voters — good news for the incumbent.
Cannon, brother of Deseret News editor Joe Cannon, has
faced Republican opponents in five of his seven races for
the U.S. House. And he's defeated each of them. But earlier
this month Chaffetz fell just a few votes short of getting
60 percent of delegate support in the state Republican
convention — and thus, eliminating Cannon. Now the two face
each other in the GOP primary.
Clearly, Chaffetz would be helped if some independents came
into the GOP primary in five weeks to vote for him. And
Jones found that 48 percent of the district's independent
voters said they favored Chaffetz, only 21 percent liked
the incumbent Cannon.
Jones found there is real interest in the 3rd District
primary election — 71 percent of those polled say they were
likely to vote June 24.
Unlike Matheson, Cannon has never been an overly popular
incumbent. And the 2001 redistricting by the GOP-controlled
Legislature — clearly aimed at harming Matheson — didn't
help out Cannon much either.
Cannon got more Salt Lake County voters in the
redistricting, with GOP lawmakers even cutting out the
northeastern part of Utah County and giving it to
Matheson's 2nd District. Chaffetz actually lives in that
small 2nd District slice of Utah County. But a U.S. House
member only needs to live in his home state, he does not
have to live in his district.
Cannon leads Chaffetz 39-37 percent in Utah County, but
Chaffetz leads Cannon 40-36 percent among Salt Lake County
registered voters who live in the 3rd District. There are
more registered voters in the west-side Salt Lake County
area of the 3rd District than there are 3rd District voters
in Utah County — a shift that has not meant a great deal in
previous elections. But in this primary it may be critical,
the poll indicates.
It's Chaffetz's challenge to get those Salt Lake County
voters out to the polls and support him.
Meanwhile, Matheson continues to drive Utah GOP leaders
nuts with his 2nd District popularity. The newspaper's new
poll finds Matheson's dominance holding strong.
The 2nd District takes in the eastern part of Salt Lake
County, holds that slice of northeastern Utah County, and
then bends to take in counties to the east and south and
ends in southeastern Utah, including Washington and Iron
counties.
Usually, the 2nd District votes Republican. But Matheson, a
conservative Democrat, has easily defeated his GOP
opponents the past two elections.
Jones' new poll finds that Matheson gets 93 percent of the
Democratic voters, 77 percent of the critical independent
voters and even 49 percent of the GOP voters. Dew gets only
36 percent of his own Republican Party votes. Dew, a
millionaire homebuilder, vows to spend his own cash if
necessary to run an effective campaign against Matheson,
who seeks a fifth, two-year term.
(Tip of the day: Jason's last name is pronounced "Chay-fits")
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