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Issues/News>
Chaffetz has a shot at defeating Cannon
May 18, 2008
Chaffetz has a shot at defeating Cannon
By Frank Pignanelli & LaVarr Webb
Published by the Deseret News: May 18, 2008
Last week's Republican state convention was a shocker to
most Utah politicos. Jason Chaffetz, former campaign
manager and chief of staff to Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr., almost
won the nomination for the 3rd Congressional District
outright to avoid a primary (falling short of 60 percent by
a few votes) Most expected a David Leavitt vs. Chris Cannon
primary. This whopper of an upset is driving many
questions:
Was the Chaffetz victory a last-minute fluke or did he have
some hidden momentum?
Webb: Chaffetz clearly gave the best convention
presentation. The delegates wanted red meat and he gave it
to them with a fiery speech focused on the specifics of how
he'll go back to Washington and do battle with the godless
Democrats. But he also has been working for two years with
the delegates and had more strength entering the convention
than anyone expected. Had Chaffetz not infuriated Leavitt
with his hard-ball tactics, causing Leavitt to shift his
support to Cannon, Chaffetz would be the nominee today. He
also would probably be the nominee had more people stuck
around to vote in the final round. Chaffetz upset a lot of
people, especially the GOP establishment, but you have to
give him credit for effectiveness with the delegates. It
wasn't a fluke.
Pignanelli: "A political convention is just not a place
where you come away with any trace of faith in human
nature" — journalist Murray Kempton. Until last week, most
politicos believed that Chaffetz's hard work was only
raising doubts about the incumbent Cannon to the benefit of
Leavitt. But Chaffetz took advantage of the storm he
created. He threw juicy cow legs for the right-wing
piranhas to savor and chew. Claiming global warming was a
farce and targeting illegal immigration, he captured the
momentum. Fun for convention politics, these issues are a
disaster for the GOP in the long term. Thus it is no wonder
Sen. John McCain and Gov. Huntsman are polar opposites from
Chaffetz and many state delegates on these matters. The
delegate and convention process is an artifact from the
political Paleozoic era that must be eliminated.
Will Chaffetz's status as a former Democrat (and
involvement with the Dukakis presidential campaign), hurt
or help?
Webb: Utah Republicans like converts, so Chaffetz's former
life is not a problem. His bigger problems are that he
doesn't live in the 3rd District, he's relatively young and
brash and sometimes comes across as a hotshot with a big
ego. He alienated a lot of legislators and others when he
was Huntsman's chief of staff. Besides showing he's tough
on Democrats, he needs to demonstrate a little humility,
show he's a good guy and not a loose cannon (pun intended).
Pignanelli: "Conversion" has several unique meanings in
Utah, and Chaffetz offers both (convert to the LDS faith
and Republican Party). Utahns are much more accepting of
religious conversion than the political change.
Representative Hugh Rush was defeated in 1990 after
changing to the GOP. The well-respected Rich McKewon, chief
of staff to Gov. Michael O. Leavitt, could not leverage his
conversion to a Republican from preventing a primary for
his boss. However, former Gov. Norm Bangerter chief of
staff Bud Skruggs (fellow Young Democrat officer with me in
the late '70s) and Eric Hutchings, current legislator who
flipped from Democrat to Republican) flourished. Politicos
are watching Dave Hogue, former Republican legislator now
Democrat, who is challenging Rep. Carl Wimmer. Because
Chaffetz has already established credentials for managing
the Huntsman campaign and administration, his enlightened
involvement with Democratic activities should not be a
hindrance.
Is Chaffetz just another flash in the pan or is Cannon
toast this time?
Webb: Cannon enjoys the support of the Republican
establishment. Sens. Orrin Hatch and Bob Bennett will give
Cannon a lot of help. Huntsman will stay out of the race.
Chaffetz will forge ahead mostly on his own, without much
name identification. Cannon will have an advantage in
fundraising. On paper, Cannon should win. But Cannon has
never been a strong campaigner. His polling numbers aren't
good. He hasn't built a political support machine at the
grassroots level and doesn't seem to like fundraising.
Chaffetz is more articulate and "on message" than Cannon
and will do well in debates. If Chaffetz is adequately
financed, can avoid coming across as too negative and
condescending, this will be a real race. As predicted, this
has been Cannon's toughest re-election challenge to date,
and it may be a squeaker.
Pignanelli: History demonstrates Cannon performs miserably
at conventions but so far is unbeatable in the primary.
Granted, Cannon's prior opponents self-destructed leading
to the primary. Yet, the congressman is usually
supercharged when campaigning to a broader audience.
Apparently, there was much hostility toward the congressman
at the convention, and he will need to contain this
emotion. Chaffetz may have bred anger when working for
Huntsman, he was highly regarded in some circles for making
tough decisions. Well-funded and well-known, Cannon is
likely to prevail.
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Republican LaVarr Webb is a political consultant and
lobbyist. Previously he was policy deputy to Gov. Mike
Leavitt and a Deseret News managing editor. E-mail:
lwebb@exoro.com. Democrat Frank Pignanelli is Salt Lake
attorney, lobbyist and political adviser. Pignanelli served
10 years in the Utah House of Representatives, six years as
House minority leader. His spouse, D'Arcy Dixon Pignanelli,
is a Utah state tax commissioner. E-mail:
frankp@xmission.com.
© 2008 Deseret News Publishing Company | All rights reserved
(Tip of the day: Jason's last name is pronounced "Chay-fits")
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